Ryder Cup predictions 🔮

The wait is almost over.

Practice rounds have been played, galas have been attended, and the Friday morning matchups have been announced (more on that below).

As a heads up, my plan is to send out a newsletter each of the next three days after play concludes. With an event of this size, it just feels like the right thing to do! ✍️✍️✍️

For those of you who have been living under a rock — or just busy with life, which is totally understandable — I’ll catch you up quick at the top with what you should know heading into tomorrow’s Ryder Cup.

Junkies and avid Quick Nine readers — feel free to skip around.

Alright, let’s get into it…

Catch up quick: Ryder Cup edition

The 44th Ryder Cup starts on Friday and will be played at Marco Simone Golf and Country Club, located just outside of Rome.

• It’s the first Ryder Cup ever in Italy.

The Americans dominated the previous Ryder Cup in 2021 at Whistling Straits (19-9).

• Yes, but: The Europeans have won seven out of the last ten Ryder Cups dating back to 2002.

• And, the US hasn’t won on European soil since 1993.

• Jordan Spieth reiterated this week that until the US can win overseas, “nobody can talk about a change in the Ryder Cup.”

After Whistling Straits, the future looked bleak for the European side, who had aging leaders, questions over who would step into their shoes, and even more questions about their talent pipeline.

• Fast forward two years, the Europeans have three of the top four ranked players in the world (Rory, Rahm, Hovland) and perhaps the game’s most promising young player Ludvig Aberg, who made the team after turning pro in June.

• The Europeans were underdogs heading into the week. But now, they are slight favorites over the Americans, according to oddsmakers.

• Still, the US is considered to have more talent top to bottom, as is often the case in Ryder Cups.

Justin Thomas — fresh off the worst season of his career — was the most controversial captain’s pick on the US side.

• Captain Zach Johnson defended his decision, however, calling Thomas “the heart and soul of Team USA” and saying, “You just don't leave JT at home.”

• Meanwhile, the meteoric rise of 23-year-old Aberg, who has never played in a major, was perhaps the biggest surprise for Team Europe.

As for the golf course, the anticipated heavy rough appears to have received a trim.

• Collin Morikawa said Wednesday that the rough was “way worse two weeks ago” during the US team’s scouting trip and that he anticipated “a lot of birdies” this weekend.

• Besides the par 5’s, which Morikawa described as “very gettable,” Marco Simone also has at least three drivable par 4’s (5, 11, and 16).

• The course’s final three holes — the 303 yard par 4 16th, 206 yard par 3 17th, and 597 yard par 5 18th — should create awesome drama down the stretch, if matches make it that far.

Friday foursomes set

The first matches for Friday morning were announced today. They are:

🇺🇲 Scottie Scheffler - Sam Burns vs. 🇪🇺 Jon Rahm- Tyrrell Hatton

🇺🇲 Max Homa - Brian Harman vs. 🇪🇺 Ludvig Aberg - Viktor Hovland

🇺🇲 Rickie Fowler - Collin Morikawa vs. 🇪🇺 Shane Lowry - Sepp Straka

🇺🇲 Xander Schauffele - Patrick Cantlay vs. 🇪🇺 Rory McIlroy - Tommy Fleetwood

Quick takeaways:

• Scottie (and his putter) will be tested right out of the gates.

• There were murmurs of Homa-Morikawa and Rory-Lowry pairings. Neither of those happened, at least at the start.

• Sitting the JT-Spieth duo is interesting, but we’ll no doubt see them together in afternoon four-ball.

• The other obvious US pairing for Friday afternoon is now Brooks and Wyndham Clark, which should be fun.

• I am scared of every Friday morning European pairing. 🤦‍♂️

Thanks so much to Under Par Performance Golf for sponsoring today’s newsletter.

Under Par offers a modern approach to golf coaching to help you get better faster. With Under Par’s app you get access to:

• An on-demand golf coach to help with your swing, short game mechanics, playing strategy and mindset

• A personalized practice plan

• A golf specific fitness plan

If you are a player looking to take your game to a new level – then Under Par Performance Golf is a great place to start. Check it out here.

Predictions (and best bets)

The Ryder Cup is truly unpredictable. But here’s my best shot at some predictions:

Luke Donald’s decision to move foursomes (alternate shot) ahead of four-ball (better ball) will work like a charm.

• Captain Donald said he made the switch because, statistically, his team seems stronger in foursomes and, “Why not get off to a fast start?” And with the lineups he set for Friday morning, it looks like the Euros could indeed jump out quickly.

• As CBS’ Patrick McDonald noted, the U.S. is 2-12-2 in foursomes in the last two Ryder Cups in Europe. That’s not good.

• Yes, but: There is some glimmer of hope for the Americans. The last time the European team set foursomes ahead of four-ball on home soil was 1993, which, as we know, was the last time the US won an away Ryder Cup.

• Currently, DraftKings has Europe slightly favored to win Friday morning (+140), which looks good to me. A tie (+260) is also interesting.

Sepp Straka — not Ludvig Aberg — will be Europe’s top rookie.

• Aberg and his sweet, sweet driver swing have been so impressive leading up to Rome.

• But, he has shown signs of being human — like shooting a final round 76 at the BMW PGA earlier this month.

• Meanwhile, thirty-year old Sepp Straka, who won the John Deere and finished T2 at The Open this summer, has nice odds (+250) to be Europe’s top rookie.

• This prediction and bet go totally awry if Aberg and Friday morning partner Viktor Hovland catch fire and ride their streak together through the weekend. This, of course, is entirely possible. Did you see Viktor’s ace today on the par 4 5th day?!

Scottie Scheffler will have a good putting week.

• I did not expect to write this sentence. But after listening to Scheffler's press conference on Wednesday where he talked about working with his new putting coach Phil Kenyon and how he’s started seeing his ball roll end-over-end a lot more often — I’m starting to believe.

• Scheffler’s putting — which ranked 151st in strokes gained on the PGA Tour this year — will be under the microscope all weekend. Expect the world’s top ranked player to receive very few concessions, even on the short ones.

• But with his ball-striking, we know that Scheffler can be dangerous even with an average flatstick. And if that happens, you could easily talk yourself into Scheffler being the top American point scorer (+400).

• Of note: A good week for Scheffler could also mean a good week for Sam Burns.

• The friends will likely be a frequent pairing, and despite Burns’ “Kentucky waterfall” hairdo, as Brooks Keopka described it, he could very well be the American’s top rookie (+225).

It’ll be close, but Europe will win. 🇪🇺 🏆

• I’ve literally come full circle on this pick. As recent as this morning, I had talked myself into the now-underdog Americans winning.

• But, I just can’t get over the European’s big three, the strength of their Englishman (Hatton, Fleetwood, and Fitzpatrick) and the potential upside of guys like Straka and Aberg. The home crowds scared me off as well. Maybe it was the flyover today during Zach Johnson’s speech.

• Europe wins 15-13. (+1000 to get it right on the number)

Alright! That’s all for today. Friday morning foursomes start tomorrow morning at 1:35 am Eastern Time on USA Network. 🥱 ☕️

As a reminder, through the end of this weekend, if you refer people to Quick Nine, you’ll be entered to win $120 towards your next round of golf. Get 10 people to sign up using your unique code below and you’ll have 10 chances to win. I’ll select one winner next week!

Thanks so much for reading y’all and see you tomorrow! - Nick B.